A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
