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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.